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GLOBAL CHALLENGES POSED BY JIHADI TERRORISM AFTER THE US WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN

STRUCTURED AFGHANISTAN FOR WEBINAR

JEHAD

Islam is the ugliest face that the humans can possibly wear, the most distorted face that the humans can see and visualise, and will have many manifestations. Jehad is one.

Jehad is hatred. Hatred is a coward’s way of taking revenge. Hatred is a weapon and motivation. In this case, hatred is revenge for being superior, better innovative value loaded and most importantly for being humane.

Jehad is not a war. Jehadis do not tolerate differences among family members. Hatred knows no bounds.

Terror is a product of answering the question, Why the whole world is not Islam?

A hatred filled mind seeks jehad all the time and in every form.

There is something that explains the perennial nature of Muslims towards Indianness and because that makes them feel inferior.

Jihadi Terrorism

Terrorism is an industry and the beneficiaries are far too many. The killing or the capture of a jihadi leader does not hurt the organization or force it to put an end to violence. After a short power struggle or minor infighting, a new leader gets installed almost immediately. Like in any industry, finances, regular supply of raw material and essential infrastructure are required by terrorists. Raw material includes arms, ammunition and equipment while training facilities, communication channels and resources are essential infrastructures.

A seed of entropy that was sown during the birth of Islam and this entropy maximisation is taking shape now. Unless a new metastable equilibrium reaches with a new threshold entropy will keep increasing irreversibly.

New Form of jehad

Jehad will be looking for disruption as the word the world understands it.

It seeks sadistic disruption

Lifestyle disruption,

Peace disruption

Innovation disruption

Creativity disruption

Living disruption as they work on same principles as Underworld.

THAT THE WORLD WILL NOT BE STABLE, PEACEFUL IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION

That there will be security threats

There will be hate crimes

There will be a complete regard for humanity.

There will be vandalism

They will pick up fights for no rhyme or reason

They will be the new idols

The situation at present will be the key to understanding the CHALLENGES POSED BY JIHADI TERRORISM AFTER THE US WITHDRAWAL

PRESENT SITUATION IN AFGANISTAN

That the Taliban is even not yet in full control of hapless Afghanistan, this gesture is typical of China’s initiative-driven and far-reaching foreign policies.

The situation in Afghanistan as of now, is

  1. The training camps of various terrorist groups in the Afghanistan hinterland may get revived, further endangering the security of the entire region.
  2. Also, international and regional terrorist organisations could mobilise and operate from the region to threaten the security of South and Central Asia. Al Qaeda may reboot, or ISIS may set up a base in Afghanistan. This would lead to increase in threat to Western interests.
  3. Pakistan will have many excuses to increase its meddling in Afghanistan, not to speak of taking care of Chinese interests by proxy.
  4. Terrorist groups operating against India like Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) would have more strategic depth to carry out their offensives in the region due to their links with the Taliban.
  5. Tehrik-i-Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) based in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region could intensify attacks against Pakistan. It already holds multiple leverages on Talibans including close relationships with top leaders like Mulla Baradar, who have been in detention in Pakistan for eight years on pressure from Americans and then released in 2018, on their orders.
SINISTER DESIGNS-ULTERIOR MOTIVE OF JEHAD
THREAT TO THE WORLD, IMPACT ON THE WORLD

An eye on Gajwa-i-Duniya is seen as an opportunity to colonise the whole of the world

  1. The victory of radical Islam against another superpower will surely inspire major radicalization and may catalyse terrorism across the world. The target of jihadi terrorism is aiming to create an Islamic world with a strict form of Shariah law in force. There will be increasing brutal conflict. No nation within the region, including China, Russia or the Western world can remain mute spectators.
  2. They will vandalise whatever they can.
  3. World will be an ugly place to live in as there will be
  4. Lifestyle traumatisation
  5. A new warfare based on barbarism will emerge
  6. The new danger will be Exploring Ecology nature and Environment as a weapon mentored by the Chinese
  7. The worst part is collapse of goodwill and management as a policy is unlikely to work in and with a jihadi mind.
EMERGING GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS AND CHANGE IN SUPER POWER STRUCTURE AND SCENARIO IN C ASIA
  1. Increased terrorist activities inside Central Asian states like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan putting at risk ethnic Muslims and an increased political instability in the region.
  2. China’s persecuted Uyghur ethnic minority could become a haven for extremists and a launchpad for terrorist attacks.
  3. The EU expects a return of heightened terrorist activities, last seen when ISIS was in power in North Africa, Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.
  4. The Western world and its citizens will continue to remain the sought-after targets.
  5. There is likely convergence of association with sea pirates in IOR as well, as these nefarious intents come into force,
WHAT PAKISTANIS ARE LIKELY TO DO

Changing geopolitical realities in the region have brought Russia and Pakistan together.

Pakistan is trying to forge counter-terrorism cooperation with other extra-regional countries like Russia, China and Tajikistan. This may help it combat a rapidly expanding Tehrik-e Taliban.

Pakistan (TTP). Notwithstanding this grandstanding, Pakistan’s geopolitical power will go up as countries in the region will seek its mediation to rein in Taliban’s disruptive moves. Like in the past, it will play duplicitous game with dexterity to extract more and more economic, diplomatic and military aid as also to hurt Indian interests.

Iran shares deep historical, cultural and linguistic links with Afghanistan. These have a bearing on events and politics. Iran faces the challenge of calibrating its support for Shiite Muslim Afghans while simultaneously engaging with the resurgent Sunni Muslim Taliban. Iran cannot take on Taliban with proxy support of Pakistan to it, since it is much weakened due to American sanctions (unless these are eased due to recent shift in geopolitical realities). To arrive at that balance, they would need to align with interests of regional powers-China, Russia and India.

The rising threat of Taliban provides Russia an opportunity to expand its security footprint into Central Asia.

Afpak alliance could be to increasing their foothold in Africa to pave way for future Chinese investment.

WHAT CHINA IS LIKELY TO DO?

China would seek to get an inroad for insulating its western flank, security of Belt and Road initiative and prospect of prospecting precious lithium and rare earth mineral wealth of Afghanistan.

China will also look for containing India in the region by marginalising its interests there.

China has already pledged and provided assistance to Afghanistan.

IMPACT ON INDIA
  1. Spread of pro-jihad sentiment that could be quite widespread in India and we have no way of knowing for sure the extent to which such ideas are endorsed by Jihadis in India.

Islamic Jihad has claimed the lives of thousands of people in India. Numerous raids are conducted every month to bust terror groups and their plots against India and with the jihadis in power in Afghanistan, such plots are expected to grow in the future. It will put added pressure on Indian intelligence agencies to stop the terrorists who want to unleash hell on Indian soil.

  1. Increased attack potential because of Panjshir bargain
  2. The danger from Taliban apologists in India is that any credible action taken to stop terror plots in our country would be judged as an ‘attack on minorities’ and as ‘human rights violations.’
  3. But more barbaric than the Taliban are their non-Islamic global enablers: chiefly, the Left-Liberal mafia. The bigger tragedy is the fact that an abundant number of their members exist in India, masquerading as Buddhists.
  4. Muslim Ghetto Governance will increasingly become challenging as all Muslim ghetto members will be terrorists
  5. More terror groups will be camouflage themselves their intentions by seeding a lot of contradictions among Left Liberal mafia.
  6. The war on infodemics and perception management will increase and intensify
RISE OF RIGHT WING EXTREMISM AS A REACTION

Identity geopolitics driven by right wing nationalism will take a new role using intolerance as a weapon and strategy

There are apprehensions that More violent incidents may take place in different places in the days to come. These are often known to set-off chain reactions of the worst kind, fuelled often by the politics of hate, stoked by growing illiberal impulses, and amplified by social media.

Several incidents are occurring in many parts of Europe, which was once considered a bastion of liberalism. Neo-Nazi tendencies are spreading fast.

Social media accounts run by the extreme Right-wing are getting more likes and shares — their engagement rates — than any other ideological propaganda.

New Zealand, Europe, India Uk all are seeing incidents and there will be a lot of convergence in the coming days.

CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

A new paradigm has to emerge replacing the older version, In Politics there are only permanent interests not permanent friends.

DEALING WITH SUCH A THREAT

Innovative methods AI based management required, AI Integrated Robotics base technology to deal with it will be required, and there will be Selective targeting

Already there will be increasing role of CIA and other Intelligence agencies

Israel like operations will be in demand in most parts of world.

WHAT INDIA CAN DO?

India has been persisting with Afghan owned, Afghan led and Afghan controlled.

OPTION 1

  1. For India India Iran relations must change and initiate further changes as well.
  2. Recently, India backed Maldives to be UNGA’s President, thus, use it as an opportunity under Maldives Presidency at UNGA to pass resolution to gather international solidarity against oppression of human rights in Afghanistan. Using these two mechanisms, India should play a key role to collectively launch a global initiative to whither arms supply through Pakistan by launching aggressive sanctions.
  3. Parallelly, India shall engage with the Talibans through the Troika Plus Initiative to kindle “The Durand Line” nationalism as a key for the future of Afghanistan. Such instance would directly put Afghan against Pakistan, which would make Pakistan as a buffer state against the Taliban. Thus, making Pakistan as a buffer state between India and Bangladesh would a viable option for India to foster ties with the Taliban and then to reform them to take democracy in the near future.
  4. Further, India voicing the concerns of Uighur in UNSC would also make the Taliban neutral in their relation with China. As the Taliban after appropriation to power would strive for recognition, India exhibiting policy of “carrot and stick” in checked engagement with the Talibans through the Troika Plus Initiative and carefully placing agendas in UNSC and UNGA to isolate the Afghanistan under Taliban control to transpire the possibilities of Arab Spring 2.0 through the Northern Alliance.
  5. India can place a clear message that India would continue to support Afghanistan, should Taliban become part of the mainstream society again. India would continue to assist Afghanistan in education – politically, diplomatically. But such an education has not paid dividends in India, what to talk of anything else.

OPTION 2

Be patient with the realpolitik Diplomacy

Understanf that the danger is not as high as it is made out to be.

There are two components-

  1. One-The danger may not be as much as the Muslims all over the world make it feel and in India being celebrated because Afghanistan has zero-sum economic value.

It is a country of 40 million people who are violent, largely uneducated, fragmented, loyalties divided among several warlords who organize violence and control territory. There is no central authority across, ideological, economic, military, social and political spheres of life.

It is a landlocked, resourceless, financially bankrupt country with no industrial, agricultural or services industry base. It is a land which historically no civilisation ever wanted to occupy. From Alexander to Babar, no one wanted to settle in Afghanistan as it was only a passage to the doors of India. There was nothing in Afghanistan to plunder or conquer.

  1. The free lunch of the last 2 decades where USA put up over 1 Trillion $ is no more. Soon, Afghanistan would face hunger and shortage of commodities. Soon, the warlords, like wild hungry dogs will be out hunting and scavenging anything they can come across, be that live prey, or dead livestock. The Afghan people who have had tasted a bit of freedom in the last 20 years will surely rebel against the harsh measure which Taliban would definitely implement.
  2. Afghanistan will implode first and then explode. Pakistan will fall prey to them. The kind of Islam which Taliban profess will make its inroads into the country with a lot of sleeper cells already entrenched there in the form of millions of madrassas ‘educated’ illiterates, 3.5 millions terror breeding cells aka mosques and hate filled, mindless army top brass.

Two- Follow the norm of Wait for and engineer the Exploitation of internal differences in Afghanistan.

There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.

and to take care of permanent interest India will have to engage with whosoever holds the command in Afghanistan…

It is so easy to fool 3 types of people-Those having ego, arrogance, greed.

Talibanes have two of them

Differences even among the closest of friends are natural and always offer openings to adversaries and it will be wise to exploit them.

For India, the main interest is in preventing Afghan soil from being used by anti-India terror groups.

India would be right to wait patiently on the Taliban’s ability to deliver on these promises and stand up against the Pakistan army’s pressures to keep India out.

Exploit the contradictions: India should not rule out contradictions between Pakistan and the terror groups it has nurtured as well as among various jihadi organisations.

Despite its powerful appeal, religious ideology has failed to build durable political coalitions within and across nations.

WHAT THE WORLD CAN DO?

A seed of entropy that was sown during the birth of Islam and this entropy maximisation is taking shape now.

Unless a new metastable equilibrium reaches with a new threshold entropy will keep increasing irreversibly.

The world must fight to vanquish Jehad not only aimed at India but the whole of the World now. The world community has to find a way to confine the spread of Islamic teachings. It has to segregate, isolate.

In order for the world to be Jehad free, it needs to be free of people who preach and practice hate society and economy and undoctoring children to hate humanity   

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